Wage Regimes, Accumulation and Finance Constraints: Keynesian Unemployment Revisited

This paper presents a sequential model suited to analyze transitions between equilibria. Disequilibrium dynamics are obtained from a standard monopolistic competition model, by introducing a sequential structure and reasonable hypotheses about technology, finance constraints, expectation formation, and the wage setting mechanism. The response to shocks crucially depends on the institutional features of the economy, and on the monetary policy stance. In particular, some degree of wage stickiness proves necessary to avoid explosive paths. This feature of the model makes it a good candidate for the reappraisal of Keynes’ arguments on wages and unemployment.Disequilibrium, Keynesian Economics, Fix Price Models, Time to Build

Macroeconomic Shocks and Labor Supply in Emerging Countries. Some Lessons from Turkey

We investigate the general equilibrium effects of minimum consumption constraints over labor supply decisions. Within a simple static model, a minimum consumption constraint modifies labor supply decisions of unskilled workers, generating the well-known added worker effect. The results of the model help to analyze the Turkish labor market where added worker effects were observed following the 2001 crisis. We investigate the asymmetric effects of the crisis, using the Household Budget Surveys that cover the period between 2002 and 2005. The substantial decrease in real wages has increased labor supply for unskilled labor, especially for women.Added worker, Taxation, Bivariate Probit, Labor Supply, Turkish Labor Market

Organization, Learning and Cooperation

We model the organization of the firm as a type of artificial neural network in a duopoly framework. The firm plays a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma type game, but also must learn to map environmental signals to demand parameters. We study the prospects for cooperation given the need for the firm to learn the environment and its rival's output. We show how a firm's profit and cooperation rates are affected by its size, its rival's size and willingness to cooperate and environmental complexity.Artificial Neural Networks, Cooperation, Firm Learning

Automatic Stabilisation, Discretionary Policy and the Stability Pact

This paper describes recent trends on the efficiency of stabilisers in the European Union. Using both macro evidence on the cyclical sensitivity of budget deficit to economic activity, and micro evidence on the tax and expenditure profiles, we conclude, in agreement with the recent literature, that the importance of automatic stabilisation has decreased. After remarking that this trend is contradictory with the current economic institutions of Europe relying exclusively on automatic stabilisation for the conduct of fiscal policy, we argue that increasing flexibility, one alternative way to reduce cyclical fluctuations, does not seem a viable path. The paper concludes defending the appropriateness of discretionary fiscal policy. We argue by means of a simple model that the theoretical arguments against its use are not conclusive, and we describe a recent stream of literature, based on structural VAR models, that concludes rather robustly for the effectiveness of discretionary fiscal policy in the short and long run.Automatic stabilisers, progressivity, unemployment benefits, discretionary fiscal policy, European fiscal institutions

Organization, learning and cooperation.

This paper models the organization of the firm as a type of artificial neural network in a duopoly setting. The firm plays a repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma type game, and must also learn to map environmental signals to demand parameters and to its rival’s willingness to cooperate. We study the prospects for cooperation given the need for the firm to learn the environment and its rival’s output. We show how profit and cooperation rates are affected by the sizes of both firms, their willingness to cooperate, and by environmental complexity. In addition, we investigate equilibrium firm size and cooperation rates.Artificial neural networks;Prisoner’s Dilemma;Cooperation;Firm learning;

Wealth Effects and Public Debt in an Endogenous Growth Model. Banca d'Italia Public Finance Workshop "Fiscal Sustainability : Analytical Developments and Emerging Policy Issues", Perugia, 3-5 April 2008.

The debate on public finances’ sustainability has long focused on the conditions for the accumulation of debt. This implied that, empirically, the analyses revolved around estimations of dynamic versions of the debt accumulation equation, through unit root tests and cointegration tests between e.g. revenues and primary expenditures, or debt and deficit. Bohn (2007, Journal of Monetary Economics), has forcefully argued in favour of a stronger focus on theory. The model of this paper shows to which extent and under which conditions earlier results considering fiscal policy in an endogenous growth setting are modified if government spending is not entirely tax-financed. Therefore the model uses Barro’s (1990, Journal of Political Economy) production function and Blanchard (1985, Journal of Political Economy)-type consumers to assess fiscal sustainability and the determinants of long-run (or potential) growth, in presence of productive capital services. The main conclusion is that, provided public spending is not too high, it will be growth-enhancing. This feature does not hurt fiscal sustainability if taxes are adjusted appropriately. We also calibrate the model to show that the current level of public capital is low in France, the UK and the USA.

Wealth effects and public debt in an endogenous growth model

The debate on public finances’ sustainability has long focused on the conditions for the accumulation of debt. This implied that, empirically, the analyses revolved around estimations of dynamic versions of the debt accumulation equation, through unit root tests and cointegration tests between e.g. revenues and primary expenditures, or debt and deficit. Bohn [2007, Journal of Monetary Economics], has forcefully argued in favour of a stronger focus on theory. The model of this paper shows to which extent and under which conditions earlier results considering fiscal policy in an endogenous growth setting are modified if government spending is not entirely tax-financed. Therefore the model uses Barro’s [1990, Journal of Political Economy] production function and Blanchard [1985, Journal of Political Economy]-type consumers to assess fiscal sustainability and the determinants of long-run (or potential) growth, in presence of productive capital services. The main conclusion is that, provided public spending is not too high, it will be growth-enhancing. This feature does not hurt fiscal sustainability if taxes are adjusted appropriately. We also calibrate the model to show that the current level of public capital is low in France, the UK and the USA.Endogenous Growth, Government Spending, Public Investment, Debt Sustainability

Learning, Organizations, and dynamic cournot games

neural netyworks, firm learning, dynamic cournot games

Cournot Competition and Endogenous Firm Size

Barr and Saraceno (JEDC, forthcoming) model the firm as a type of artificial neural network (ANN) which plays a repeated Cournot game. Each period, the network/firm must estimate the relationship between environmental conditions and optimal output. Among other results, the paper develops the notion of a Network Size Equilibrium (NSE): which is an optimal network size for each of the players. The concept of NSE allows us to map environmental complexity to a type of industrial structure, i.e., the average network size in equilibrium. This paper builds on the previous work by exploring the dynamic adjustment process of networks. That is to say, we explore how the network (firm) evolves over time in reaction to the environmental complexity and the behavior of its rival. We model how firms endogenously "grow" over time in the adjustment process toward a network size equilibrium by exploring different adjustment algorithms, which may involve different costs. Further we explore the stability and the types of equilibria that can emerge, given different environmental scenarios.Cournot Competition, Neural Networks, Adjustment Dynamics

Simple Proposal for a Debt Related Fiscal Rule.

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